Insurance itself isn’t a tariffed product. As Kevin Chen (CIO at Horizon Financial) noted, “The immediate impact is probably minimal.” Insurance contracts don’t cross borders like steel or soybeans. However, the economic environment surrounding those contracts is deeply shaped by global trade dynamics.

The panelists agreed that the first-order effects of tariffs don’t hit insurance policies directly. But as Matan Slagter (CEO of Armadillo) emphasized, “Inflation is the thing to watch.” It’s not the tariff itself, but the economic reaction—especially in pricing and cost structures—that begins to matter for insurers and their customers.

One reason this topic remains underexplored in insurance is its complexity. Economic policy, trade restrictions, currency markets, and financial flows all intersect in ways that aren’t typically front and center in underwriting or distribution decisions. That’s why we brought together a diverse set of voices—ranging from climate and home protection to venture and capital markets.

Rodrigo Garcia Ayala (CEO of Suyana Climate Insurance) brought a global lens to the discussion. “We’re seeing this play out internationally,” he said, referring to climate-driven disruptions in supply chains. Though not directly related to tariffs, these disruptions echo the same fragility that trade policy can exacerbate.

Peilin Corbanese (Head of Marketing, Analytics and Data Science at AAA Life) reminded the audience that “context is critical” when evaluating the downstream effects of policy. Life insurers, for example, may not face direct supply-chain issues, but shifts in macroeconomic sentiment—driven by everything from tariffs to interest rates—affect consumer behavior and investment decisions.

Although the panel didn’t directly discuss claims costs for homes or autos rising due to tariffs, they did acknowledge indirect pressures on pricing and expectations.

Slagter observed that rising home repair costs—due to both inflation and supply chain issues—create challenges for companies offering home warranty and protection plans. “The expectation is that things should work,” he said, referring to customers’ assumption that service will remain fast and affordable, even as parts become scarcer or more expensive.

While not framed explicitly through a tariff lens, this connection highlights how economic shocks—whether from policy or disruption—affect insurers’ cost structures.

Although the panel didn’t address the idea of “Buy American” claims strategies or annuity plays based on high interest rates, they were clear that complexity itself creates opportunity.

Rodrigo pointed out that climate and supply chain interdependencies have led to new types of demand for insurance solutions in emerging markets. “We’re not just covering risk—we’re building trust in regions that haven’t had this before,” he said.

Peilin noted that data-driven personalization offers a chance to stay ahead of macroeconomic shifts by focusing on what matters most to consumers, regardless of trade conditions. “There’s a bigger conversation about value and protection,” she said.

The panel didn’t reach a consensus about how tariffs will shape the future of insurance—but they all agreed on one thing: the economy is increasingly interconnected, and insurance leaders must be prepared to understand and respond to those links. Tariffs may not rewrite the rules of underwriting tomorrow, but the second- and third-order effects—on pricing, supply chains, and consumer expectations—will continue to influence how insurers build resilience and respond to change.

Tariffs may not directly touch the insurance contract, but they do shape the environment in which those contracts live. Understanding that difference is key to staying ahead.